SPAL v Fiorentina is the live Serie A game on Premier Sports on Sunday, although given so little is at stake it’s hard to know why.
The hosts were relegated long ago and will finish bottom of the table. Of their 11 post-lockdown games, they have drawn two and lost nine.
It’s hard to look beyond a win for the visitors (a 4/9 chance), who will finish in the top half if they do so. How much motivation that will provide is open to question though and punters should certainly be wary of the potential for team changes on what is essentially a meaningless final day.
However, working on the assumption that there won’t be wholesale changes for Fiorentina, the value appears to lie in backing them to win to nil.
Six of SPAL’s nine losses since the resumption have come this way, while Fiorentina have been defensively solid over the past month, conceding just three goals in their last seven games and keeping four clean sheets in that period.
Another win to nil here is on offer at 2/1 – considerably more attractive than the simple win price in the match result market.
There’s also an interesting contender in the anytime goalscorer market.
Fiorentina centre-back Nikola Milenkovic, a reported target of Manchester United, has scored five times this season, including in both of his last two games.
He’s a threat from set-plays but also possesses a decent shot.
With SPAL having conceded three or more in six of their 11 post-lockdown matches, including six at home to Roma less than a fortnight ago, Fiorentina could well score a few here.
Milenkovic is therefore worth a punt at 5/1 to find the net again.
*All prices correct at the time of writing and subject to change