The post-lockdown form of Inter Milan and Getafe contrasts greatly and makes the Italians strong favourites for this Europa League last-16 tie.
A one-off game, staged in Gelsenkirchen, Germany, will determine which side goes through to the quarter-finals.
When the draw was made, this looked a tough one to call. While Inter were enjoying a strong season under new boss Antonio Conte, Getafe were very much on course for a top-four finish in Spain with their uncompromising style having again produced results.
Yet Getafe’s form fell off a cliff after the resumption. They won just one of their 11 La Liga games as they not only missed out on a Champions League spot but also a return to this competition next season.
Their only hope of European football next season now is by winning the Europa League but it does not look likely – Getafe ended their domestic campaign by scoring just the one goal in their last six games.
Inter, on the other hand, won eight of 13 in Serie A after lockdown, losing only once, as they finished runners-up to Juventus by just one point.
Romelu Lukaku has been in fine form but Conte has instilled real belief across the whole team and his men will now be focused on trophy success in one final push.
A win for the Italians at 4/6 looks perfectly fair but for those seeking a bigger price, recent form suggests a win to nil at 6/4 is worth backing.
A delve into the cards market also makes sense given the teams’ nature; Getafe finished bottom of the fair-play table in Spain, while Inter had the fourth-worst discipline in the Italian top flight.
English ref Anthony Taylor is in charge. He’s fresh from dishing out six yellows and a red in the FA Cup final, while his average card figures rise significantly in Europe.
This season his card make-ups have been: 7+1, 5, 6, 5, 4, 3, 7+1 – that’s 37 yellows and two reds across seven games. Over a longer period, 12 of his last 14 Euro ties have resulted in over 4.5 cards.
Ex-West Brom star Allan Nyom, now with Getafe, looks worth backing for a card at 15/8.
He’s gone into the notebook in 19 of his 43 games this season, including 12 of the last 20. Those stats suggest the quote is too big and there’s certainly nothing in the ref or the opponents to change that opinion.
Inter’s Ashley Young is an even tastier 9/2, particularly with Taylor being the ref.
Taylor has booked the former Manchester United man on two of his last four starts when their paths have crossed.
Young was carded in eight of 14 starts for United in the first half of this season and while he’s only collected two in 15 for Inter since his January switch, 9/2 looks big, especially with the narky Spaniards in opposition – both Nyom and another regularly-booked man, Damian Suarez, are likely to play down Young’s side.
*All prices correct at the time of writing and subject to change