Chelsea v Liverpool - Match Preview

Chelsea v Liverpool

The headline game of the Premier League this weekend comes at Stamford Bridge as Chelsea host Liverpool.

888Sport Pre-Match Odds: Chelsea 27/10, Draw 13/5, Liverpool 1/1

 

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These two sides met only last month in the UEFA Super Cup, playing out a 2-2 draw (1-1 after 90 minutes) before Jurgen Klopp’s Reds came out on penalties.

 
Penalties have been a bugbear for the Blues this season, with Ross Barkley’s penalty potentially costing them all three points against Valencia in their midweek Champions League match.
 
That was the latest setback for Frank Lampard’s young team, but there have been green shoots and positive signs, especially with the young academy graduates who have scored all of Chelsea’s league goals so far this season. Tammy Abraham has seven in his last three games in the Premier League.
 
But there are doubts about the defence, which could be still not be full strength with Antonio Rudiger likely to be sidelined after suffering a relapse on his return last week. The good news is that N’Golo Kante is back in training and could return, with his industry and tenacity in midfield vitally important in protecting a defence. With him largely missing, Chelsea are still awaiting a first clean sheet and only Norwich have conceded more goals in the Premier League.

Liverpool are also looking to bounce back from a setback in the Champions League, losing 1-0 away to Napoli in what’s now a very rare off night for them, with firing a blank in front of goal extremely rare.
 
They’ve got a five point cushion at the top of the league after winning all five games, which is the biggest-ever gap at such an early stage. Last week’s comeback win over Newcastle extended their winning run to 14 games in total, all of which have seen them score two or more goals.
 
It will be the usual front three, with them each looking in resplendent form at the moment, Tuesday night aside. Roberto Firmino came off the bench to provide two assists, Salah scored one and Mane scored twice against the Magpies last week.
 
We recommend going for an away win. Liverpool just never look like dropping points, and they’ll be licking their lips at how many goals Chelsea have already let in this season. But they’ve only kept one clean sheet in all competitions, so could well concede themselves
 
Recommendation
 
Liverpool to win and both teams to score - 9/4 with Bet365
 

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Predictions

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Betting Tips

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Simulation

Liverpool vs Chelsea

This is a very close match-up.
In 10,000 simulations Liverpool won 37.7%, Chelsea won 36.1% and there was a 26.2% chance of a draw.
Overall, the average simulation score is Liverpool 1.7 to Chelsea 1.6.
In simulation wins, Liverpool averages 10.0 shots and 4.3 shots on goal.
They average 2.7 goals in simulated victories vs just 0.8 in simulation losses.
When Chelsea wins they average 10.1 shots and 4.6 shots on goal.
They average 2.6 goals in simulated victories vs just 0.8 in simulation losses.

Chelsea Player Prediction

Players Shots SG Goals G%
Willian 1.3 0.4 0.11 10.72%
N. Kanté 0.64 0.11 0.08 7.56%

Liverpool Player Prediction

Players Shots SG Goals G%
S. Mané 1.53 0.72 0.52 41%
Mohamed Salah 2.29 0.97 0.49 38.44%
Roberto Firmino 1.79 0.67 0.29 25.04%
V. van Dijk 0.64 0.16 0.1 9.9%
T. Alexander-Arnold 0.76 0.24 0.07 6.96%
G. Wijnaldum 0.57 0.2 0.06 6.06%

League Table

Place Team GP Won Draw Lost GF GA +/- Points
1 Liverpool 35 30 3 2 76 27 49 93
2 Manchester City 35 23 3 9 91 34 57 72
3 Chelsea 35 18 6 11 63 49 14 60
4 Leicester City 34 17 8 9 64 32 32 59
5 Manchester United 34 16 10 8 59 33 26 58
6 Sheffield United 35 14 12 9 38 33 5 54
7 Wolverhampton Wanderers 34 13 13 8 45 37 8 52
8 Arsenal 34 12 14 8 50 42 8 50
9 Burnley 35 14 8 13 39 47 -8 50
10 Tottenham 34 13 10 11 52 44 8 49
11 Everton 34 12 9 13 41 49 -8 45
12 Southampton 34 13 5 16 43 56 -13 44
13 Newcastle United 35 11 10 14 36 52 -16 43
14 Crystal Palace 34 11 9 14 30 43 -13 42
15 Brighton and Hove Albion 35 8 12 15 36 52 -16 36
16 West Ham United 35 9 7 19 44 59 -15 34
17 Watford 35 8 10 17 33 54 -21 34
18 AFC Bournemouth 34 7 7 20 32 59 -27 28
19 Aston Villa 34 7 6 21 36 65 -29 27
20 Norwich City 35 5 6 24 26 67 -41 21

Head To Head Comparison

03.03.2020
Chelsea
Liverpool
22.09.2019
Chelsea
Liverpool
14.08.2019
Liverpool
Chelsea
14.04.2019
Liverpool
Chelsea
29.09.2018
Chelsea
Liverpool
26.09.2018
Liverpool
Chelsea
06.05.2018
Chelsea
Liverpool
25.11.2017
Liverpool
Chelsea
31.01.2017
Liverpool
Chelsea
16.09.2016
Chelsea
Liverpool
28.07.2016
Chelsea
Liverpool
11.05.2016
Liverpool
Chelsea
31.10.2015
Chelsea
Liverpool
10.05.2015
Chelsea
Liverpool
27.01.2015
Chelsea
Liverpool
20.01.2015
Liverpool
Chelsea
08.11.2014
Liverpool
Chelsea
27.04.2014
Liverpool
Chelsea

Last 5 Games

11.07.2020
Sheffield United
Chelsea
07.07.2020
Crystal Palace
Chelsea
04.07.2020
Chelsea
Watford
01.07.2020
West Ham United
Chelsea
28.06.2020
Leicester City
Chelsea

Last 5 Games

11.07.2020
Liverpool
Burnley
08.07.2020
Brighton and Hove Albion
Liverpool
05.07.2020
Liverpool
Aston Villa
02.07.2020
Manchester City
Liverpool
24.06.2020
Liverpool
Crystal Palace