Manchester City host Newcastle United on Wednesday in a repeat of last month’s FA Cup quarter-final.
Pep Guardiola’s side ran out comfortable 2-0 winners on that occasion at St. James’ Park, coming up against a men-behind-the-ball approach from Steve Bruce’s Magpies, who registered just 24% possession on home soil.
City also have an especially strong home record against Newcastle, recording five league wins in a row at The Etihad against them and scoring 20 goals in the process. Another comfortable victory by at least four or more goals is priced at odds of 21/10 - you have to look elsewhere for value because a home victory is just 1/8.
The hosts are looking to bounce back from a disappointing 1-0 defeat away to Southampton on Sunday, in which they repeated their tendency to fail to take their chances. With top scorer Sergio Aguero out injured, there’s big pressure on stand-in striker Gabriel Jesus to end a nine-match goalless streak - the Brazilian is still the favourite to score here, however, at 8/15 anytime and 11/4.
Phil Foden and Kevin De Bruyne are both expected to be recalled by the Catalan coach here after only make cameos from the substitutes bench at the weekend. De Bruyne has scored in each of his last three starts and is priced at 13/2 to open the scoring against Newcastle, as he did from the penalty spot against the Magpies a fortnight ago. Foden, meanwhile, has three goals and two assists from his last five appearances, which isn’t bad considering three of those have just been off the bench - the 20-year-old is 6/1 to score first here.
Newcastle will hope to put up more of a fight than they have in recent years. Bruce might go for a less convervative approach than in the cup, with little at stake here, reverting to a back four system that’s served them well in the league of late - they’re unbeaten in six Premier League outings and have scored 10 goals in their last four games. They’re a massive 20/1 to keep that run of form going with an away win here.
We recommend backing a comfortable home victory for City here, who will be keen to bounce back from Sunday’s defeat and are expected to field a strong starting XI. A 3-0 victory for City is available at 6/1.
*All prices correct at the time of writing and subject to change