West Ham United v Southampton - Football Live Match Preview

West Ham v Southampton

Southampton head to West Ham on Saturday for their first game since confirming their Premier League status for next season.

PaddyPower Pre-Match Odds: West Ham 5/4, Draw 5/2, Southampton 2/1*

 

MATCH PREVIEW

 

The Saints were in a precarious position when Ralph Hasenhuttl was handed the reins at the start of December, collecting just nine points under the previous boss Mark Hughes.

 

They have seen a massive upturn in fortunes since Hasenhuttl took charge and last week’s 3-3 draw against Bournemouth, coupled with Cardiff City’s defeat at Fulham, means the south coast side are safe with two games to spare.

 

Hasenhuttl has said he will use the remaining matches to assess his fringe players as he prepares for a busy summer transfer window. 

 

Goalkeeper Fraser Forster could be handed a recall having not featured in the Premier League this season, while Mario Lemina is pushing for a start for the first time since recovering from a troublesome abdominal issue. 

 

Jannik Vestergaard will miss the remainder of the season through injury, joining Michael Obafemi on the sidelines, while Maya Yoshida is a doubt with illness. 

 

Saturday represents the 100th time Southampton and West Ham have faced off in the league, the Hammers winning the most recent fixture 2-1 at St Mary’s in December. 

 

West Ham are looking for a first league double over the Saints since 2001 and showed last week at Tottenham that they aren’t quite 'on the beach'. 

 

Manuel Pellegrini's men became the first visiting team to win at the new Tottenham Hotspur Stadium thanks to Michal Antonio’s goal last weekend, ending a run of four games without a win. 

 

A first top-10 finish in three years is now the aim for West Ham with Pellegrini admitting it has been a season of transition, the ex-Manchester City manager claiming that he wants to spend the summer building towards a push for a European finish next term.

 

West Ham have been boosted by the news that Samir Nasri and Manuel Lanzini will be available to face Southampton this weekend.

 

Nasri, who joined the Hammers on a short-term deal in January, has missed five games with a calf strain.

 

Lanzini and Aaron Cresswell are fit again, while Carlos Sanchez could make his comeback from a knee injury.

 

BETTING ANALYSIS

 

West Ham ended a four-match winless run with a victory over Tottenham. The Hammers will be looking to follow that up when they meet Southampton at the London stadium. 

 

Manuel Pellegrini was under a tad of pressure when his side suffered three straight defeats at the hands of Everton, Chelsea and Manchester United. However, that pressure undoubtedly grew when his men blew a 2-1 lead to draw with Leicester City. 

 

Nevertheless, a slender 1-0 win over Spurs in the London derby seems to have put the Hammers back in a good frame of mind. This Saturday they will be looking to continue their momentum when they take on a Saints side in mixed-form. 

 

Southampton have managed to secure their Premier League survival however recent results suggest the team still has a long way to go to improve. 

 

Ralph Hasenhuttl’s men have won just one of their last five games scoring nine goals and conceding 11 in that time frame. 

 

Looking at the head to head record, it’s clear that both teams aren’t goal shy when they come up against each other. With that in mind, the recommendation is to back a home win but both teams to score at the current price of 3/1. 

 

This bet landed earlier this season when both teams met at St. Mary’s Stadium. Two late goals from Felipe Anderson sealed a 2-1 victory for the Hammers. We expect the script to follow a similar path but not necessarily with the same protagonists. 

 

Recommendation

West Ham to win and both teams to score – 3/1 bet365*

 

*prices correct at time of writing and are subject to change

Predictions
Markets Odds Probability %
Over 0.5 In 1st Half 1.33
67%
1st Goal Before 30 Minutes 1.83
58%
Both Teams To Score 1.57
56%

Simulation

Southampton vs West Ham United

There is a 29.8% chance of a draw.
In simulations where the game is not a draw West Ham United, at 41.2%, are solid favorites to beat Southampton who have a 29.1% chance.
In simulation wins, Southampton upsets West Ham United by averaging 13.1 shots and 5.0 shots on goal.
They average 2.1 goals in simulated victories vs just 0.5 in simulation losses.
Overall, the average simulation score is West Ham United 1.3 to Southampton 1.1.

West Ham United

Players Shots SG Goals G%
F. Balbuena 1.23 0.10 0.07 6.38%

Southampton

Players Shots SG Goals G%
D. Ings 3.05 1.41 0.41 33.88%
P. Højbjerg 1.97 0.70 0.16 14.84%
R. Bertrand 0.95 0.16 0.06 5.46%
Place Team GP Won Draw Lost GF GA +/- Points
1 Manchester City 38 32 2 4 95 23 72 98
2 Liverpool 38 30 7 1 89 22 67 97
3 Chelsea 38 21 9 8 63 39 24 72
4 Tottenham 38 23 2 13 67 39 28 71
5 Arsenal 38 21 7 10 73 51 22 70
6 Manchester United 38 19 9 10 65 54 11 66
7 Wolverhampton Wanderers 38 16 9 13 47 46 1 57
8 Everton 38 15 9 14 54 46 8 54
9 Leicester City 38 15 7 16 51 48 3 52
10 West Ham United 38 15 7 16 52 55 -3 52
11 Watford 38 14 8 16 52 59 -7 50
12 Crystal Palace 38 14 7 17 51 53 -2 49
13 Newcastle United 38 12 9 17 42 48 -6 45
14 AFC Bournemouth 38 13 6 19 56 70 -14 45
15 Burnley 38 11 7 20 45 68 -23 40
16 Southampton 38 9 12 17 45 65 -20 39
17 Brighton and Hove Albion 38 9 9 20 35 60 -25 36
18 Cardiff City 38 10 4 24 34 69 -35 34
19 Fulham 38 7 5 26 34 81 -47 26
20 Huddersfield Town 38 3 7 28 22 76 -54 16

Head To Head Comparison

04.05.2019
West Ham United
Southampton
27.12.2018
Southampton
West Ham United
31.03.2018
West Ham United
Southampton
19.08.2017
Southampton
West Ham United
04.02.2017
Southampton
West Ham United
25.09.2016
West Ham United
Southampton
06.02.2016
Southampton
West Ham United
28.12.2015
West Ham United
Southampton
11.02.2015
Southampton
West Ham United
30.08.2014
West Ham United
Southampton

Last 5 Games

19.10.2019
Everton
West Ham United
05.10.2019
West Ham United
Crystal Palace
28.09.2019
AFC Bournemouth
West Ham United
25.09.2019
Oxford United
West Ham United
22.09.2019
West Ham United
Manchester United

Last 5 Games

19.10.2019
Wolverhampton Wanderers
Southampton
06.10.2019
Southampton
Chelsea
28.09.2019
Tottenham
Southampton
24.09.2019
Portsmouth
Southampton
20.09.2019
Southampton
AFC Bournemouth