Newcastle United v Liverpool - Football Live Match Preview

Newcastle v Liverpool

Liverpool will be looking to return to the Premier League summit on Saturday when they make the trip to Newcastle United.

PaddyPower Pre-Match Odds: Newcastle 8/1, Draw 4/1, Liverpool 3/10*

 

The Reds are one point behind table-toppers Manchester City, who are at home to Leicester City on Monday evening, and Jurgen Klopp's men will be gunning for all three points to put the pressure back on the Citizens.

 

Liverpool head into the clash at St James' Park on the back of a 3-0 defeat at Barcelona, a result which leaves the Merseysiders' chances of qualifying for the Champions League final very bleak ahead of the second leg at Anfield.

 

In terms of domestic form, Klopp's side are on a 15-game unbeaten run and they have still only suffered one league defeat all season - that coming against City on January 3.

 

Liverpool have won their last three away matches in the league - beating Fulham, Southampton and Cardiff - but they will be without the services of midfielder Naby Keita after he has been ruled out for two months with what Klopp said was a "high-grade adductor injury".

 

Newcastle's survival for next season has already been assured and they head into the contest on a three-game unbeaten run, having beaten Leicester and Southampton before drawing at Brighton.

 

The Magpies have won five of their last six home matches in the league and they will be looking for revenge against Liverpool, having been thrashed 4-0 at Anfield on Boxing Day.

 

Rafael Benitez has confirmed Ayoze Perez is fit to play after shrugging off a hip injury, while captain Jamaal Lascelles is available for selection after he missed the last game with a stomach bug.

 

However, American right-back DeAndre Yedlin is suffering with a groin problem and is set to miss the Reds' visit.

 

BETTING ANALYSIS

 

Liverpool will be looking to keep their title bid alive when they take on Newcastle this Saturday night. 

 

What a paradox this could be? Rafa Bentiez, a Liverpool hero, will be looking to beat his former side and consequently, crush their Premier League title hopes. 

 

As the Newcastle manager, the Spaniard has no other choice but to go on the attack and try to get one over his old club. 

 

And what a blow that could potentially be to the Reds. Following a 3-0 thrashing at the hands of Barcelona, the Reds could see both the Champions League and the Premier League slip through their fingers in a space of four days.

 

That defeat to Barcelona ended Liverpool’s run of ten straight victories in all competitions. Newcastle could only dream of a run like that however, they’ve not been too bad either having won two from their last three games. 

 

Looking at the head to head record, we can see that Liverpool are without a win in four straight visits to St. James’ Park. Could this be a sign of things to come? 

 

Well, the recommendation certainly suggests it is as we are backing the hosts in the double chance market. A Newcastle win or a draw is priced at 12/5. 

 

Recommendation

Newcastle/Draw Double Chance – 12/5 888Sport*

 

*prices are correct at time of posting and are subject to change

Predictions
Markets Odds Probability %
Sum of Goal Between 2 & 3 2.05
64%
Over 0.5 In 1st Half 1.33
61%
Goals In Last 15 Minutes  
56%
Last Goal After 73 Minutes 1.95
56%

Simulation

Liverpool vs Newcastle United

There is a 27.5% chance of a draw.
In simulations where the game is not a draw Liverpool, at 57.2%, are heavy favorites to beat Newcastle United who have just a 15.3% chance to win at home.
Overall, the average simulation score is Liverpool 1.5 to Newcastle United 0.6.
In simulation wins, Newcastle United upsets Liverpool by averaging 8.9 shots and 4.0 shots on goal.
They average 1.6 goals in simulated victories vs just 0.3 in simulation losses.

Newcastle United

Players Shots SG Goals G%
S. Rondón 1.90 0.75 0.18 16.24%
Ayoze Pérez 1.03 0.48 0.09 8.72%
M. Ritchie 1.03 0.28 0.05 4.70%
F. Schär 0.57 0.17 0.03 2.70%

Liverpool

Players Shots SG Goals G%
Mohamed Salah 3.05 1.35 0.65 47.80%
S. Mané 1.89 0.79 0.29 25.04%
T. Alexander-Arnold 0.79 0.23 0.06 6.10%
G. Wijnaldum 0.73 0.20 0.06 6.08%
Place Team GP Won Draw Lost GF GA +/- Points
1 Manchester City 38 32 2 4 95 23 72 98
2 Liverpool 38 30 7 1 89 22 67 97
3 Chelsea 38 21 9 8 63 39 24 72
4 Tottenham 38 23 2 13 67 39 28 71
5 Arsenal 38 21 7 10 73 51 22 70
6 Manchester United 38 19 9 10 65 54 11 66
7 Wolverhampton Wanderers 38 16 9 13 47 46 1 57
8 Everton 38 15 9 14 54 46 8 54
9 Leicester City 38 15 7 16 51 48 3 52
10 West Ham United 38 15 7 16 52 55 -3 52
11 Watford 38 14 8 16 52 59 -7 50
12 Crystal Palace 38 14 7 17 51 53 -2 49
13 Newcastle United 38 12 9 17 42 48 -6 45
14 AFC Bournemouth 38 13 6 19 56 70 -14 45
15 Burnley 38 11 7 20 45 68 -23 40
16 Southampton 38 9 12 17 45 65 -20 39
17 Brighton and Hove Albion 38 9 9 20 35 60 -25 36
18 Cardiff City 38 10 4 24 34 69 -35 34
19 Fulham 38 7 5 26 34 81 -47 26
20 Huddersfield Town 38 3 7 28 22 76 -54 16

Head To Head Comparison

04.05.2019
Newcastle United
Liverpool
26.12.2018
Liverpool
Newcastle United
03.03.2018
Liverpool
Newcastle United
01.10.2017
Newcastle United
Liverpool
23.04.2016
Liverpool
Newcastle United
06.12.2015
Newcastle United
Liverpool
13.04.2015
Liverpool
Newcastle United
01.11.2014
Newcastle United
Liverpool
11.05.2014
Liverpool
Newcastle United

Last 5 Games

17.07.2019
Newcastle United
Wolverhampton Wanderers
12.05.2019
Fulham
Newcastle United
04.05.2019
Newcastle United
Liverpool
27.04.2019
Brighton and Hove Albion
Newcastle United
20.04.2019
Newcastle United
Southampton

Last 5 Games

14.07.2019
Bradford City
Liverpool
11.07.2019
Tranmere Rovers
Liverpool
01.06.2019
Tottenham
Liverpool
12.05.2019
Liverpool
Wolverhampton Wanderers
07.05.2019
Liverpool
Barcelona