Chelsea v Burnley - Football Live Match Preview

Chelsea v Burnley

Chelsea have the chance to strengthen their position in the Premier League table when they take on Burnley at Stamford Birdge.

PaddyPower Pre-Match Odds: Chelsea 1/4, Draw 5/1, Burnley 14/1

 

The Blues have had a mixed season but could end it on a high should they manage to secure a place in the top four. 

 

In order to turn this into reality though, Maurizio Sarri’s side have to take all three points against Burnley. 

 

That may prove easier said than done with Sean Dyche’s men still fighting to secure their Premier League status. 

 

Following a string of positive results, Burnley need just a few more points to ensure top tier football next season. The Clarets will no doubt be intent on making sure that those points come at the expense of Chelsea. 

 

The Blues come into this game on the back of their narrow victory over Slavia Prague in the Europa League. 

 

There are clear vulnerabilities in their camp which does suggest that this upcoming clash against Burnley may be a lot closer than first expected. 

 

With that in mind, the recommendation is to back the hosts but only to win by a slender margin of one goal. This bet is currently priced at ….

 

Recommendation

Chelsea to win by a margin of one goal – 13/5 PaddyPower

Predictions
Markets Odds Probability %
Last Goal After 73 Minutes 1.87
62%
Over 0.5 In 1st Half 1.28
62%
Goals In Last 15 Minutes  
56%

Simulation

Burnley vs Chelsea

There is a 17.8% chance of a draw.
In simulations where the game is not a draw Chelsea, at 75.8%, are heavy favorites to beat Burnley who have a 6.5% chance.
In simulation wins, Burnley upsets Chelsea by averaging 4.9 shots and 2.3 shots on goal.
They average 1.5 goals in simulated victories vs just 0.3 in simulation losses.
Overall, the average simulation score is Chelsea 2.0 to Burnley 0.4.

Chelsea

Players Shots SG Goals G%
E. Hazard 3.39 1.60 0.76 53.84%
David Luiz 1.33 0.42 0.13 11.82%

Burnley

Players Shots SG Goals G%
C. Wood 0.81 0.30 0.08 7.68%
J. Cork 0.30 0.06 0.03 3.16%
Place Team GP Won Draw Lost GF GA +/- Points
1 Manchester City 38 32 2 4 95 23 72 98
2 Liverpool 38 30 7 1 89 22 67 97
3 Chelsea 38 21 9 8 63 39 24 72
4 Tottenham 38 23 2 13 67 39 28 71
5 Arsenal 38 21 7 10 73 51 22 70
6 Manchester United 38 19 9 10 65 54 11 66
7 Wolverhampton Wanderers 38 16 9 13 47 46 1 57
8 Everton 38 15 9 14 54 46 8 54
9 Leicester City 38 15 7 16 51 48 3 52
10 West Ham United 38 15 7 16 52 55 -3 52
11 Watford 38 14 8 16 52 59 -7 50
12 Crystal Palace 38 14 7 17 51 53 -2 49
13 Newcastle United 38 12 9 17 42 48 -6 45
14 AFC Bournemouth 38 13 6 19 56 70 -14 45
15 Burnley 38 11 7 20 45 68 -23 40
16 Southampton 38 9 12 17 45 65 -20 39
17 Brighton and Hove Albion 38 9 9 20 35 60 -25 36
18 Cardiff City 38 10 4 24 34 69 -35 34
19 Fulham 38 7 5 26 34 81 -47 26
20 Huddersfield Town 38 3 7 28 22 76 -54 16

Head To Head Comparison

22.04.2019
Chelsea
Burnley
28.10.2018
Burnley
Chelsea
19.04.2018
Burnley
Chelsea
12.08.2017
Chelsea
Burnley
12.02.2017
Burnley
Chelsea
27.08.2016
Chelsea
Burnley
21.02.2015
Chelsea
Burnley
18.08.2014
Burnley
Chelsea

Last 5 Games

29.05.2019
Chelsea
Arsenal
16.05.2019
New England Revolution
Chelsea
12.05.2019
Leicester City
Chelsea
09.05.2019
Chelsea
Eintracht Frankfurt
05.05.2019
Chelsea
Watford

Last 5 Games

12.05.2019
Burnley
Arsenal
03.05.2019
Everton
Burnley
28.04.2019
Burnley
Manchester City
22.04.2019
Chelsea
Burnley
13.04.2019
Burnley
Cardiff City