Leeds United v Derby County - Football Live Match Preview

Leeds United v Derby County

Leeds midfielder Pablo Hernandez is a major doubt as Marcelo Bielsa prepares his depleted squad for Friday's visit of Derby.

bet365 match odds: Leeds 17/20, Draw 29/10, Derby 100/30

Leeds United will look to tighten their loosening grip on top spot with victory over Derby County on Friday night.

Marcelo Bielsa's men will be hoping to return to winning ways and avoid a third successive league defeat and a fourth loss on the bounce in all competitions.

The Whites come into this clash still smarting from Saturday's 2-1 FA Cup third round defeat at Queens Park Rangers.

The hosts will be desperate to halt their mini slump, the worst run of Bielsa’s reign.

Meanwhile, Derby will have their tails up going into this clash, buoyed by a 2-2 come-from- behind draw last time out as they earned themselves an FA Cup third round replay at Southampton.

The Rams will be hoping the resilience they displayed against Southampton and in the 4-3 win at Norwich City two weeks ago, will stand them in good stead against Leeds and for the promotion challenge on the whole.

The reverse fixture in August 2018 was instantly forgettable for Frank Lampard, whose charges were handed a 4-1 thrashing on the new manager’s home debut.

Since then the Rams dusted themselves down and inserted themselves into the promotion narrative.

Lampard’s men are on a three-match unbeaten run. They are six points off the automatic promotion places and eight adrift of Leeds United.

This Friday night fixture is an opportunity for Leeds United and Derby County to steal a march on rivals ahead of a full raft of Championship fixtures on Saturday.

TEAM NEWS

Leeds United will be without as many as 10 players through a combination of injuries, suspensions and departures.

Liam Baker, who has returned to parent club Chelsea, is one of the absentees who include Geatano Berardi, Stuart Dallas, Barry Douglas, Jamal Blackman, Pablo Hernandez and Patrick Bamford.

Kalvin Phillips misses out through suspension, but captain Liam Cooper is back in contention after overcoming his injury problems.

Derby midfielder and joint-top scorer Harry Wilson is doubtful for the trip to Elland Road.

The Liverpool loanee will be assessed for the injury which caused him to miss the FA Cup tie with Southampton.

Scott Malone is back in the frame after a four-match absence due to a groin injury.

Mason Bennett is back in training, but the match comes too soon for the striker.

BETTING TIP

Draw @ 29/10 bet365

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Predictions
Markets Odds Probability %
Over 0.5 In 1st Half 1.34
73%
Sum of Goal Between 2 & 3 2.02
62%
1st Goal Before 30 Minutes 1.83
62%
Both Teams To Score 6.80
62%

Simulation

Derby County vs Leeds United

There is a 27.3% chance of a draw.
In simulations where the game is not a draw Leeds United, at 58.7%, are heavy favorites to beat Derby County who have a 14.0% chance.
In simulation wins, Derby County upsets Leeds United by averaging 7.1 shots and 2.8 shots on goal.
They average 1.6 goals in simulated victories vs just 0.3 in simulation losses.
Overall, the average simulation score is Leeds United 1.5 to Derby County 0.6.

Place Team GP Won Draw Lost GF GA +/- Points
1 Norwich City 46 27 13 6 93 57 36 94
2 Sheffield United 46 26 11 9 78 41 37 89
3 Leeds United 46 25 8 13 73 50 23 83
4 West Bromwich Albion 46 23 11 12 87 62 25 80
5 Aston Villa 46 20 16 10 82 61 21 76
6 Derby County 46 20 14 12 69 54 15 74
7 Middlesbrough 46 20 13 13 49 41 8 73
8 Bristol City 46 19 13 14 59 53 6 70
9 Nottingham Forest 46 17 15 14 61 54 7 66
10 Swansea City 46 18 11 17 65 62 3 65
11 Sheffield Wednesday 46 16 16 14 60 62 -2 64
12 Hull City 46 17 11 18 66 68 -2 62
13 Brentford 45 16 13 16 72 59 13 61
14 Preston North End 46 16 13 17 67 67 0 61
15 Blackburn Rovers 46 16 12 18 64 69 -5 60
16 Stoke City 46 11 22 13 45 52 -7 55
17 Birmingham City 46 14 19 13 64 58 6 52
18 Wigan Athletic 46 13 13 20 51 64 -13 52
19 Queens Park Rangers 46 14 9 23 53 71 -18 51
20 Reading 46 10 17 19 49 66 -17 47
21 Millwall 46 10 14 22 48 64 -16 44
22 Rotherham United 46 8 16 22 52 83 -31 40
23 Bolton Wanderers 45 8 8 29 29 77 -48 32
24 Ipswich Town 46 5 16 25 36 77 -41 31

Head To Head Comparison

15.05.2019
Leeds United
Derby County
11.05.2019
Derby County
Leeds United
11.01.2019
Leeds United
Derby County
11.08.2018
Derby County
Leeds United
21.02.2018
Derby County
Leeds United
31.10.2017
Leeds United
Derby County
13.01.2017
Leeds United
Derby County
15.10.2016
Derby County
Leeds United
29.12.2015
Leeds United
Derby County
29.08.2015
Derby County
Leeds United
30.12.2014
Derby County
Leeds United
29.11.2014
Leeds United
Derby County
03.05.2014
Leeds United
Derby County

Last 5 Games

24.08.2019
Stoke City
Leeds United
21.08.2019
Leeds United
Brentford
17.08.2019
Wigan Athletic
Leeds United
13.08.2019
Salford City
Leeds United
10.08.2019
Leeds United
Nottingham Forest

Last 5 Games

24.08.2019
Derby County
West Bromwich Albion
20.08.2019
Derby County
Bristol City
17.08.2019
Stoke City
Derby County
13.08.2019
Scunthorpe United
Derby County
10.08.2019
Derby County
Swansea City